BlackRock in an investment management firm based in the US. Something like $6.5 trillion in assets under management.

Via a piece from Elga Bartsch, Head of Economic and Markets Research for the BlackRock Investment Institute.

Their base case is for euro-zone growth to pick up H2 of 2019

  • But the risks around our favourable base case are considerable
  • mainly tied to potential political troubles.

Brexit gets an acknowledgement, of course, but on elections coming up also:

  • European Parliament elections in late May could result in a populist sweep of protest parties from both ends of the political spectrum. This would further erode the influence of pro-European centrist political forces.
  • Heightened concerns about Europe's future would likely lead to a renewed widening in peripheral euro-zone government bond spreads.
  • And:
  • 2020 budget season may refocus attention on the conflict between the Italian government and the European Commission
  • There are also going to be leadership changes this year in many EU Institutions, including at the ECB

And …

  • European fragmentation … is the most prominent geopolitical concern for financial markets at the moment