This article is well worth reading, its from Mark Buchanan and published on Bloomberg. He talks about an error in how probability is considered, an error that “systematically underestimates prevailing risks”:

Why We Underestimate Risk by Omitting Time as a Factor

There is more detail at his blog: Thinking again about time , where he notes:

I don’t in any way want to imply that people in finance have not been thinking about this. Many have.