Issued Friday, so not breaking news - BNZ see 0.62 for NZD/USD by the end of 2019.

BNZ citing (this in brief from a longer note):

  • Trump's higher tariff tweet a "a game changer for our NZD forecasts"
  • Our prior assumption was that a ceasefire in the trade war, followed by an eventual trade deal later this year or early next year, would help support a mild recovery in the NZD. That no longer looks like a central forecast
  • Sees weaker CNY, "NZD and CNY have been closely linked, so a weaker yuan suggests a weaker NZD"
  • RBNZ larger than expected 50bps rate cut - NZD fell significantly, much of this reflected the market being wrong-footed