LONDON (MNI) – Analysts, on balance, expect the Bank of England’s
Monetary Policy Committee to leave policy unchanged at its May 9 and 10
meeting, but it is a close call, according to a Market News survey.

The MNI survey’s median is for unchanged policy not just in May but
also in August and November, the next two policy meetings that come in
quarterly Inflation Report months.

The risks, however, are clearly tilted to an extension of QE. The
survey has an upside skew with the mean forecast rising from Stg333
billion of QE in May to Stg345 billion in November.

Of the 34 analysts surveyed, seven expect a QE extension this
month (21%) and ten of the 30 (33%) who provided a November forecast
expect it to have been extended after that meeting.

Please see the accompanying report for a more detailed assessment
of analysts’ views.

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Key Results:

Median Forecast for QE After May, Aug, Nov MPC Meetings: Stg325 bln
Mean QE F’cast After May, Aug, Nov: Stg333bln, Stg340bln, Stg345bln
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Level Level Level
QE QE QE
End End End
Date May August November
Of Meeting Meeting Meeting
Forecast stg bln stg bln stg bln

Median 325 325 325
Mean 333 340 345
High 375 425 450
Low 325 325 325
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Number Responses 34 30 30
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Barclays Capital 3-May 325 325 325
BNP Paribas 4-May 325 325 325
BoA-ML 3-May 325 325 325
Capital Economics 3-May 325 400 450
Citi 4-May 375 400 400
Commerzbank 3-May 325 n/a n/a
Credit Suisse 3-May 325 325 325
Daiwa 3-Apr 325 325 375
Deutsche 3-May 325 325 325
Global Insight 3-May 325 325 325
Goldman 3-Apr 375 375 375
Henderson New Star 3-Apr 325 325 325
HSBC 4-May 325 n/a n/a
ING 4-May 325 325 325
Investec 3-May 350 350 350
Jeffries 4-May 325 n/a n/a
JP Morgan 3-May 325 325 325
Lloyds 3-May 325 375 400
Morgan Stanley 4-May 325 325 325
NAB 3-May 350 350 350
Nomura 3-May 350 350 350
Novus Capital 3-May 325 325 325
Oxford Economics 3-May 325 325 325
Rabobank 3-May 325 325 325
RBC 3-May 325 325 325
RBS 3-May 325 325 325
Schroders 3-May 375 425 450
Scotia 3-May 325 325 325
SEB 3-May 325 325 325
Societe Generale 3-May 325 325 325
Standard Chartered 4-May 325 n/a n/a
Standard Life 3-May 325 325 325
UBS 20-Apr 325 325 325
Westpac 3-May 375 375 375

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Survey compiled by Sanjukta Moorthy.

For more information contact: David Robinson on 44-20-7862 7491 or
e-mail: drobinson@marketnews.com or sanjukta.moorthy@ntkn.com

[TOPICS: M$$BE$,MTABLE]