Silvana Tenryro speaking

She says:

  • small amount of policy tightening will probably be needed over forecast period in a smooth Brexit
  • if Brexit deal reached, stronger pound would ease inflation pressure, especially given prospects of looser policy abroad
  • weaker global outlook would also lengthen. Until there is enough inflation pressure for her to vote for a rate hike
  • she does not expect much inflation pressure pickup in the next few months
  • more likely than not that no deal Brexit response would be monetary policy loosening but this is by no means certain
  • increases in trade tension at added downside risks for global economy
  • UK core inflation measures stable, few signs of weakness in inflation expectations
  • UK labor market remains tight: employment, hours worked in unit labor costs growth have been strong