Comments by BOE MPC member Gertjan Vlieghe
- UK has lots 2% of relative GDP since Brexit referendum vote
- Sees path of BOE policy tightening slower than a year ago
- Also sees a chance that BOE will tighten after a no-deal outcome
- Will wait for more inflation signs before next rate hike
- If Brexit is "smooth", then 0.25% rate hike per year is likely
- If no-deal Brexit scenario, an easing or extended pause in policy is more likely
This very much keeps in tone with what markets anticipate the BOE may do with regards to which Brexit outcome plays out. Carney has previously reiterated as well that even in the event of a no-deal Brexit, it is no guarantee that the central bank will cut rates; but we all know that they are likely to err towards a more easy stance considering the hit the UK economy will take in such a scenario.
