Brexit deal: Third time luck for May?
If at first you don't succeed, try , try and try again
If there was a prize for sheer dogged determination then Theresa May would definitely win it. How she manages to not only take defeat, but bounce back with the same idea is a marvel to behold. It's like one of those science fiction monster invasions where the alien gets stronger the more adversity they face. Theresa May has a particular strength of character that is clearly driven by her belief in the service to the UK. Yes, it's a nightmare. Yes, someone else, somewhere could have done a better job, I suppose. However, David Cameron jumped ship as soon as the tide turned (understandably given he campaigned for remain), Boris Johnson was presented as toying with a move to take over as PM, but I suspect the reality of Brexit negotiations hit him pretty quick. Boris doesn't strike me as a nitty gritty detail kind of guy. So Theresa has just got on with the job, getting through a few Brexit secretaries on the way, and maybe, just maybe she will turn it round on Tuesday.
Last week Theresa May did win a couple of rare victories. The amendment that was designed to wrestle control over Brexit from her was rejected by 314 to 312. It was tight, but a win. May also won the vote to ask the EU for an extension until June 30. Result. However, all eyes now turn to the Brexit votes this week. May will once again take her vote to Parliament on March 19. If May's vote is rejected again, then the cat really is out of the bag. General elections, Tory Euro-sceptics backing no confidence votes and the potential of coalitions forming to deliver a different Brexit than May would have wanted as Parliament wrestle control from May. The only thing that the UK is clear on is that it doesn't want to leave without a deal.
The GBP now sits at a crossroads. Solve Brexit and we could well be on path for a rate hike from the BOE. This week's BOE meeting on Thursday would suddenly become a lot more interesting if Brexit is sorted by then. If not, then same old, same old from the BOE. Namely, the BOE talking about sitting in the shadow of Brexit and how dark it really is.
The question now for May is whether or not enough MP's will switch and support May given the bleak alternative of not supporting May's deal at all. The DUP are , as time of writing , sitting on the fence. Whether May has enough support or not should become clear over the next couple of days.
Headline news trading proved profitable last week for those with the patience to sit waiting. One way or the other, this should be quite a week for the GBP.