Brexit: Goldman Sachs timeline for the days ahead and outcome chances

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: News

GS after Thursday's Brexit developments in the UK parliament 

Implementing Brexit remains politically fraught. This week, the UK Parliament has rejected PM May's deal for a second time; 
  • it has rejected a `No Deal' Brexit 
  • and has now voted to delay Brexit. 
  • This evening (March 14), Members of Parliament voted for a three-month extension of the previous Brexit deadline to 30 June.
Before next week's EU Summit (21-22 March), 
  • MPs will vote again on PM May's Brexit deal in a Third Meaningful Vote (by 20 March). 
  • If Parliament does not back PM May's deal next week then the EU-27 may well urge a longer Brexit delay perhaps until end-2020, raising the cost of opposing PM May's deal for Eurosceptics in a Fourth Meaningful Vote. 
We continue to see a 60% chance that a close variant of the Prime Minister's current Brexit deal is eventually ratified. 
  • Outside our central scenario, we still think there is a considerable chance that Brexit is reversed, via a second referendum (subjective odds of 35%), 
  • but we think the probability of Brexit without a deal remains low (5%)

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