Brexit: Goldman Sachs timeline for the days ahead and outcome chances
GS after Thursday's Brexit developments in the UK parliament
Implementing Brexit remains politically fraught. This week, the UK Parliament has rejected PM May's deal for a second time;
- it has rejected a `No Deal' Brexit
- and has now voted to delay Brexit.
- This evening (March 14), Members of Parliament voted for a three-month extension of the previous Brexit deadline to 30 June.
Before next week's EU Summit (21-22 March),
- MPs will vote again on PM May's Brexit deal in a Third Meaningful Vote (by 20 March).
- If Parliament does not back PM May's deal next week then the EU-27 may well urge a longer Brexit delay perhaps until end-2020, raising the cost of opposing PM May's deal for Eurosceptics in a Fourth Meaningful Vote.
We continue to see a 60% chance that a close variant of the Prime Minister's current Brexit deal is eventually ratified.
- Outside our central scenario, we still think there is a considerable chance that Brexit is reversed, via a second referendum (subjective odds of 35%),
- but we think the probability of Brexit without a deal remains low (5%)