Brexit: What now?
While the pound carries on ahead, what does the court ruling really mean for Brexit
First and foremost, this doesn't mark the beginning of the end for the decision to leave. The court case was never about reversing the decision, only that parliament votes to pull the trigger on article 50.
If the case goes to appeal, and loses there, I believe we could then head off to the Supreme court for a final ruling. I've been told that the appeal will be to the Supreme Court and will be a final judgement. The only good thing is that the UK law machine is fast tracking all these cases so we're not waiting months.
Now, while there are some that want to reverse the vote, the majority know it would be absolute political suicide to try and do so. The UK would be plunged into a huge political mess that would be far more damaging to the country than Brexit itself. We could have snap elections, resignations and more court cases that would last years.
The vast majority of parliament, mainly the opposition parties, have said that the will abide by the vote but want to know what the government has in its negotiating locker, before they will allow article 50 to be triggered. Once satisfied, they'll vote it through.
While that all sounds simple and sensible, giving Parliament the power to debate the vote (to trigger art50) is very dangerous for the UK.
Firstly, it risks the UK putting all its cards on the table ahead of any negotiations with the EU. Anyone who knows anything about business knows you don't do that.
Secondly, it allows various parties and members to push their own agendas thus, from the outside, making us look like a bunch of fools. It always amazes me how politicians, in the name of serving their citizens, manage to make a pigs ear of absolutely any situation that doesn't need meddling. This is one topic that needs sensible approaches, not small minded personal battling and point scoring. But that's politics for you.
The big damage to the UK and the economy won't come from what's agreed with the EU eventually but how much of a mess parliament and its members make this process of triggering article 50. And in that, I'm not hopeful of an easy or quiet transition through that process.
While the pound is loving the news, and maybe once again looking towards the BOE up next, the market could be completely on the wrong track with regards to what this court judgement actually means, and what mess it could lead to in the months ahead, so I'd be cautious about getting to heavy into GBP longs just on the back of this judgement and what it means for Brexit.
This is first blood to those opposed to Brexit but there's a long road still to travel.