Bundesbank to back ECB rate cut action if inflation forecasts lowered
The euro fell to a one-month low Tuesday after a Wall Street Journal report saying Germany’s central bank is willing to back an array of stimulus measures next month, including negative deposit rates and purchases of securitized bank loans if needed.
They cite a “person familiar with the matter” and note that ECB staff projections for 2016 will be the lynchpin of the decision.
The report says the Bundesbank is against US-style QE but is open to other options “including: reductions in the ECB’s lending and deposit rates; extension of unlimited loans to commercial banks—known as fixed rate, full allotment—from mid-2015 until mid-2016; offering new long-term loans to banks at a fixed rate to further beef up the ECB’s forward guidance; and some purchases of asset-backed securities.”
They say the steps aren’t a done deal and depend on inflation forecasts. The current forecast is for inflation to average 1% this year, 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016.
This report is huge, it comes from Brian Blackstone is who the most well-known ECB watcher so it’s certainly credible. It will be very difficult for the euro to attract any significant buying in the aftermath.