The honeymoon is over
I have no idea why anyone was buying the pound on the Johnson announcement -- it was entirely expected. Bookies had his win at 1/100.
Moreover, Johnson has not been able to unite the Conservative party. Yesterday's effort (by his own colleagues) to launch a snap confidence vote and potentially trigger an election is a sign that the wounds from the May-era are still wide open.
Goldman Sachs is out with a note raising the odds of a hard Brexit to 20% from 15%. I still peg it at 1%.
They also highlight the risk of an election and that's the real issue. I think it's inevitable and the only question is whether it comes before Oct 31 or afterwards. It's the only chance he has of getting a governable majority and he certainly thinks he can beat Corbyn. At the same time, there were reports he wanted to run a stimulative budget ASAP in order to buy some votes show off what kind of PM he is.
In feudal times Boris and Ivanka would now get married to solidify a US-UK alliance.
