With the half-cent rally in the pound in the past few hours, traders appear to be leaning toward a weekend poll showing dropping support for independence.
Today’s referendum poll from The Guardian/ICM showed 42% expecting to vote “No” to independence and 40% in favor. The remaining 17% are undecided.
The independence vote is dogged by low support from women and the elderly.
The seniors vote in the referendum
A separate question showed 69% of respondents saying independence was at least a moderate risk or that they didn’t know. Together that’s a huge hill to climb and to me it says the odds are independence are much lower than the 10/3 odds at bookmakers.
The prior two weeks have started off with big gaps lower in the pound on referendum fears.
I don’t think we’ll get the same kind of rebound on a reversal in the polls because the risk will remain until voting on Sept 18 but the risk is toward the upside with a Panelbase poll due on the weekend (no time scheduled).
The following round of poll results isn’t due until Wednesday, just one day before the vote with Yougov/IPSOS-MORI/Survation all scheduled for last-minute surveys.
