Bid emerges as US dollar softens

GBPUSD daily

The 4 pm London fix is a few minutes away and cable is rallying into it. GBP/USD is now up 31 pips to 1.3352.

That's 70 pips from the European sessions lows with most of it coming in the past 30 minutes.

JPMorgan is out with a note today upgrading the odds of a Brexit deal to 80% from 66%. I think it's even higher but you never know with this never-ending nightmare.

Two things stand out for me right now:

1) It's quiet

We've heard all the talk on the weekend about a deal being close. Boris will speak to Ursula this week and we are close to a real deadline if they want a smooth transition and politicans hate working at Christmas so there's an incentive to get it done early.

2) We're not hearing the negative things

If there was something negative going on, we'd be hearing some negative rumblings. It's just not happening at the moment. There are the usual things about challenges and all that. I don't think we're at the final horse-trading moment but I just don't see the political energy -- especially in the UK -- for another big blowup and fight.