I posted earlier on the likelihood of a minority government in Canada:
Polls in Canada close at 10pm NY time (ie west coast polling finishes 10pm NY time)
- That is 0200GMT, so expect results to trickly out during the Asian time zone
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Adding this via Scotia Bank on the election, in summary from a longer piece:
- Based upon polling composites, the election probabilities suggest low odds of a majority, and similar odds attached to either a Liberal or Conservative minority government
- obvious caution is that global pollsters have not gotten much right over recent years
- As for potential market effects, we're a little trigger-shy on that front after markets saw unexpected results stemming from other major political developments over recent years such as the 2016 Brexit referendum and US election vote.
- Added reason to be cautious is that the Federal election results will be digested into the same global markets that will be dealing with the aftermath and potential next steps in the Brexit saga.
- Uncertainty surrounding the platforms and fiscal effects could have markets guardedly positioned toward the election outcome itself and it could take a while for the fuller effects to be priced.
- … evaluating potential market effects today could well be an altogether different kettle of fish than it was following past elections.
- For one, Canada offers a significant yield pick-up relative to many other global debt markets and that likely dominates considerations in a reach-for-yield market environment.
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Scotia keeping their powder dry … the in a nutshell view for the CAD on the election seems to be :
1. the impact will be subsumed by the bigger picture
and
2. wait and see.
