Bank of Canada decision due at the top of the hour
The Bank of Canada is 100% expected to hold rates at 0.50% at the top of the hour but the intrigue will be in whether or not the acknowledge the string of strong data over the past couple months and edge away from a dovish bias.
The key part of the BOC statement is always at the end and it currently reads:
"The Bank's Governing Council remains attentive to the impact of significant uncertainties weighing on the outlook and continues to monitor risks outlined in the January MPR. In this context, Governing Council judges that the current stance of monetary policy is still appropriate and maintains the target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent."
Note that this is a decision with an MPR, which means the Bank of Canada is updating its forecasts and holding a press conference. The BOC usually uses these decisions when it wants to make a shift.
I think there is great value in buying the Canadian dollar ahead of the announcement (selling USD/CAD). More dovish talk is priced in but economic data has been sparking for months now and concerns about the US are diminished.
In addition to the statement and MPR, Poloz and deputy Wilkins hold a press conference 75 minutes after the release. In previous press conference he hurt CAD by saying a rate cut was still 'on the table'. He will be asked the same question this time and a shift there would be notable.
