Canadian trade balance for December
- Prior was -2.06B (revised to -1.98B)
- Exports -3.8%, the fifth consecutive decline
- Exports down 9.8% since July with energy accounting for 80% of the fall
- Imports +1.6% in Dec
- Imports from non-US countries rose 9.2% to record
- 2018 trade deficit $21.7B vs $24.6B in 2017
This number was delayed because US trade balance was postponed due to the government shutdown.
This is the worst number in at least 20 years.
Canadian oil differentials blew out late in 2018 but this is still far worse than anticipated and could mean Q4 GDP was very close to negative. The BOC statement said they are anticipating "exports and non-energy investment are projected to grow solidly." They also revised forecasts for exports higher in October.
Separately, Canadian Q4labour productivity fell 0.4% compared to 0.3% expected. The Q3 number was also revised down to +0.2% from +0.3%.
