For the CAD traders - heads up for the Canadian data due today at 1330 GMT

  • November GDP

A couple of previews:


  • We expect the economy to expand by 0.2% (month-on-month) in November.
  • Both the goods and services producing sectors are also expected to expand.
  • We look for the factory sector gain and an increase in construction activity to offset declines in agriculture, and utilities.
  • On the services side of the economy, we look for wholesale and retail sales to increase. Overall, we look for 11 of the 15 services industries to expand in the month.
  • With the increase in economic output in November, we forecast GDP growth of 1.1% on a 3-month-on-3-month annualised basis. Following GDP growth of 4.5% in Q2 and 1.7% in Q3, November will provide further confirmation that economic growth decelerated late in the year. From a year ago, we expect GDP to rise by 3.2%, down from the prior 3.4%.


  • We are forecasting 0.4% m/m growth in November GDP after a flat reading in October.
  • Part of the reasoning behind the flat reading was unscheduled maintenance shutdowns at oil sands facilities, leading to the mining, oil and gas component detracting 0.1pp from headline growth. A reversal is expected for the category in November and the uncertain magnitude could be an upside risk to our forecast.
  • Activity reports have been firmer in November, with manufacturing ex-autos volumes up 0.8% m/m, wholesale volumes up 0.5% m/m, and retail volumes up 0.3% m/m. The forecasted 0.4% gain is consistent with Q4 growth ~2% annualized, about 0.5pp below the BoC's re-affirmed estimate for the quarter in the January 17th MPR.

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