The Canadian jobs report for June 2018

  • Prior was -7.5K

  • Full time jobs +9.1K vs +30.0K expected (-31K prior)

  • Part time +22.7K vs -10.0K expected (+23K prior)

  • Participation rate 65.5% vs 65.4% expected (65.3% prior)

  • Unemployment rate 6.0% vs 5.8% expected (5.8% prior)

  • Hourly earnings permanent employees +3.5% vs +3.9% prior

USD/CAD traded at 1.3132 ahead of the data and immediately dropped in part due to USD weakness on non-farm payrolls. At first, the Canadian report looks strong but there was a jump in the unemployment rate (albeit on rising participation) along with softer wage data.

Hourly earnings among permanent employees:

Looking at overall jobs, the 31.8K is a solid number but it comes after a couple of weak reports. The four-month moving average is weaker than it was for most of last year.

Overall, this is a pretty good report and solidifies a Bank of Canada hike next week. At the moment, USD/CAD is a bit slow to slide because of the broader volatility but a USD slump could be brewing.