US May consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan

U Mich consumer sentiment
  • Prelim was 73.7
  • April final was 71.8
  • Current conditions 82.3 vs 83.0 prelim
  • Expectations 65.9 vs 67.7 prelim
  • 1-year inflation +3.2% vs +3.0 prelim
  • 5-10 year inflation +2.7% vs +2.6% prelim

The market is patient with the lack of improvement in May but if the preliminary June number is below 80 then the market is going to start to bury the v-shaped narrative and start to worry about a slog.

On the inflation side, the rise in expectations is notable because it's the highest since March 2016 and a rise from 2.3% in March. There are people keeping a very close eye on inflation expectations. I think it's too soon to move markets but if there's a recovery in 2021, inflation is going to be top-tier headline data.