Canada monthly inflation data due today - preview

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: News

CPI data for April is due on Wednesday 15 May 2019 at 1230GMT 

Preview via TD:
  • Headline inflation should drift higher to 2.0% y/y in April as higher gasoline prices eliminate the year-ago drag from energy while CAD depreciation should provide a modest tailwind to food prices. Core (ex. food & energy) prices should see a 0.1% advance, partly attributable to seasonal factors, while the BoC's preferred core measures are likely to hold at 2.0% y/y on average.
BMO:
  • expected to rise solidly for a third consecutive month
  • though it won't be quite as strong as the prior two months
  • We're looking for a 0.4% increase, with another jump in gasoline prices the key driver. 
  • The strongest seasonal period for inflation has passed, but April and May are still among the stronger months. 
  • Beyond energy, shelter and household operations/furnishings are expected to lift inflation, while airfares and travel services reverse the March-break driven gain. 
  • Our call would push annual inflation up a tick to 2% for the first time since October. 
  • Two of the Bank of Canada's core CPI measures, weighted median and trimmed mean, moved back to target in March. Look for those two to hold steady in April, with some upside risk for the weighted median. 

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