Canadian fourth quarter and December GDP data:

  • Q3 final number was +40.3% q/q annualized
  • December GDP +0.1% m/m vs +0.1% expected
  • December GDP -3.0% y/y vs -3.0% expected
  • November GDP was -2.8% y/y
  • November GDP +0.8% m/m
  • January GDP flash estimate +0.5%
  • 18 of 20 sectors grew in Q4
  • Full report

The annualized number is much stronger but the December data is in line. Total activity is 3% below pre-pandemic levels.

Retail trade was down 3.3% in December as governments put on lockdowns right after Christmas but even non-store retail (online) was down 1.1% in the month due to the secular move towards earlier Christmas shopping.

The big surprise to me is the January flash estimate, up 0.5% in a month of heavy lockdowns across the country. That bodes well for 2021 growth.

USD/CAD is slightly higher in the aftermath but that's part of a broader move in markets. This is a good report.