Canadian retail sales are due at the bottom of the hour
The April report on retail sales is expected to show a 0.3% m/m rise after a healthy +0.7% reading in March. There could be volatility with a wide range of economist estimates from -0.2% to +0.6%.
The market will drill down into the numbers, especially the line on ex-autos. The consensus forecast is for a +0.7% reading after a -0.2% print in March. Estimates range from 0.0% to +1.0%.
The Canadian consumer has been aided by strong house prices and jobs growth. First quarter growth is forecast at 3.7% with household consumption up 4.3%. Given the momentum and given that Toronto house prices were riding high in April (but not anymore), I see the risks to the upside.
