CBA on the Australian dollar this week (NZD too)

CBA on the AUD, and New Zealand dollar also for the week ahead

AUD/USD will continue to trade on the defensive this week in part because the US-China trade spat is a risk to our constructive global growth outlook.

• If trade tension worsens it will undermine economic confidence and be a drag on global economic activity.
• In Australia, the main focus are Tuesday's RBA June meeting minutes and comments from RBA Governor Lowe at a Central Banking Forum on Wednesday.

NZD/USD will remain under downside pressure this week on slower New Zealand economic activity

• Our ASB colleagues expect Q1 GDP growth of just 0.4% (Thursday).
• This outcome would be weaker than the RBNZ's May Monetary Policy Statement forecast of 0.7% and consensus expectations of 0.5%.