A report from CBA (Commonwealth Bank of Australia) chief economist Michael Blythe
He is quite dismissive of the reports of an imminent recession in Australia
- He says if you "Back an economist into a corner and demand a recession probability estimate and the answer will almost certainly be 20 per cent"
- "A 20 per cent recession risk does, however, imply an 80 per cent chance of dodging any recession bullet"
Says arguments for looking for a recession are weak, saying (in brief):
- Reserve Bank of Australia policy settings are accommodative
- RBA has the capacity to ease further
- AUD is low enough to support growth
- Parts of the economy are strong enough to offset some of the loss in mining investment
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If you want more on the report, the Australian Financial Review has a piece on it here (does not appear gated): Talk of a recession is overblown, says CBA economist Michael Blythe
Also, Business Insider has a much bigger rundown on Blythe's report here: 8 reasons why Australia will not go into recession
