Who needs intervention and jawboning when you can just sit back and wait for some good old fashioned USD bullishness. The Governors Stevens and Wheeler must be sharing high fives over the recent moves and there’s no signs of them abating at the moment.
NZD/USD was held up at strong support at 0.8209 for a day and the level has become resistance already for roughly the same period, as did the 0.8260/65 level above it.
NZD/USD H4 chart 12 09 2014
We’re finding support here at 0.8150/55 and we’re approaching longer term support just below.
NZD/USD Weekly chart 12 09 2014
The 200 wma comes in 10 pips above the 61.8 Jun 2013/Jul 2014 lo/hi fib at 0.8120 and just below is March 2011 support at 0.8092. It’s a similar setup of the tech that we saw in AUD/USD around 0.9200 so there’s the potential for playing it exactly the same way. If you want to trade the support then placing longs anywhere among that tech with a tight stop on a break of the 2011 trendline is the setup to look at.
Conversely look for the break of the 2011 trendline to go short to at least the Jan/Feb 2014 lows at 0.8050. Compared to the aussie (where there’s been open space on the break of 0.9160) these joined lows may have a say in holding up a move down. Again, if it does then look for any bounce to be contained by the broken tech between 0.8092-0.8130. A stop above 0.81540/50 could save the trade but personally I’d look to put one above the 0.8210 level. Break the 0.8050 level and you’ve got a nice big open space to play with, but watch the psychological 0.8000 level.