By Ian McKendry
WASHINGTON (MNI) – Domestic shipping by over-the-road trucking
declined in October indicating a possible letdown in the fourth quarter
for industrial production, nominal GDP and retail sales, UCLA economists
reported Tuesday.
The UCLA Anderson School of Management along with business service
company Ceridian released the Ceridian/UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index
Tuesday which tracks real-time fuel consumption of domestic road
trucking in the U.S. and correlates closely to the trajectory of the
Federal Reserve’s Industrial Production number, GDP and retail sales.
October’s report showed over-the-road trucking declined by 0.6
percent in the month after a 0.5 percent drop in September, and 1.0
percent decline in August which made for the first three-month decline
since January 2009.
“October is an especially important siren for the months ahead, and
our latest PCI data indicates retailer wariness about future sales
prospects,” Ed Leamer, chief director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast said
in the report Tuesday.
“While it’s discouraging to see the PCI decline for the third
consecutive month, October represents the eleventh straight month of
year over year growth in the index,” Craig Manson, senior vice president
and index expert for Ceridian said.
“This means that the holiday sales season will likely be better
than last year, but potentially disappointing versus current
expectations in the marketplace,” Manson added.
On a year-over-year basis, the October 2010 PCI is 4.1 percent
higher than October 2009, but year-over-year increases in the PCI have
slowed since May’s 9.0 percent growth peak.
“Should consumers show early exuberance, October’s decline may only
spell postponement to November. However, the PCI’s performance indicates
that retailers lack confidence in the coming sales season,” Manson said.
** Market News International Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **
[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$]
