By Ian McKendry
WASHINGTON (MNI) – Data from the trucking industry indicates
economic growth is continuing, but at a “tepid pace” and suggests the
first quarter GDP print will be in the lower range of forecasts.
The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index, which tracks up to the
second diesel fuel purchases, fell 1.5% seasonally adjusted in February
after falling 0.3% in January — taking back the “exceptional” 1.8% gain
in December.
However, the report did say February did show year-over-year growth
for the 15th consecutive month and the three month annualized moving
average was up 5.4% indicating the economy is still growing.
“These data points suggest that the economic recovery is intact,
but it remains tepid,” the report said, adding “we are clearly not yet
seeing the signs of growth required to drive significant job growth or
meaningful improvement in the unemployment rate.”
The report added that while many forecasters have predicted first
quarter GDP come in somewhere between 2% and 5.5% — the PCI suggests
the final first quarter print will come in below consensus and near
lower end of the range.
The report also said weather played a factor in the PCI but was not
the reason for the weak February print.
“The daily data also suggests that much of the volume that was
‘lost’ during the first week of the month was ‘found’ later in the
month, meaning that weather was not the major reason for the decline in
the PCI this month,” the report said.
The report was also wary of spiking fuel prices saying it did not
contribute to this months weakness but “if the trend persists, higher
prices will likely have an impact in the coming months as consumers are
robbed of spending power.”
The index is compiled by tracking credit card purchases by diesel
fuel trucks on major trucking hubs. It closely tracks the Federal
Reserve’s Industrial Production data and suggests February’s print will
be a negative 0.2%.
** Market News International Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **
[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$]
