China ‘activity’ data coming up – industrial production, retail sales, and more
A preview of the Chinese data due at 0200 GMT on Wednesday 15 May 2019.
- y/y expected 6.5%,prior 8.5%
- YTD y/y expected 6.5%, prior 6.5%
- y/y expected 8.6%, prior 8.7%
- YTD y/y expected 8.4%, prior 8.3%
- expected 6.4% y/y, prior 6.3%
- After a surge in IP at the end of the first quarter, these figures are likely to show that growth moderated at the start of the second quarter, in line with the latest manufacturing PMIs.
- In contrast, retail sales growth is expected to have remained solid close to the 8.7%Y/Y pace seen in March.
- And fixed investment growth is expected to have edged slightly higher too, to the firmest pace for a year.
- We expect retail sales growth to stay steady at 8.7%/yr supported by faster food inflation and an expected stabilisation in car sales growth.
- We do expect industrial production growth to ease to 6.6%/yr in April due to fading impacts of seasonality and on the implementation of the Value Added tax cut.
- Strong infrastructure spending supports our prediction of a rise in fixed asset investment growth to 6.5%/yr. We have recently revised up our forecast of Chinese GDP growth in 2019 to 6.5%
- Investment growth is clearly recovering and broadening.
- Manufacturers remain under pressure.
- Consumer outlook depends on investment's income return.