China - Caixin service PMI for July 54.9 (expected 50.6, prior 50.3)

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: News

Much higher than in June, huge result

For the Composite, 53.1 vs prior of 50.6

Comments on the Composite from Markit (bolding is mine)
  • gauges for output, total new orders, new export business and employment were all in expansionary territory. However, the gauges for input and output prices also remained well above 50, so we still need to be wary of inflationary pressure. 
  • Overall, the manufacturing and services sectors continued to grow in July. Both supply and demand maintained the upward trend, and the employment market stayed stable. The gauges for input and output prices in both the manufacturing and services sectors remained high, indicating immense inflationary pressure. 
Good news on employment and that 'immense' inflation pressure comment is concerning. 

Markit look ahead:
  • As the July surveys of Caixin China PMIs were conducted after the epidemic in Guangdong province was brought under control, and before Covid-19 resurged in Jiangsu province, the services sector expanded rapidly, though the manufacturing sector was slightly weaker. The resurgence of the epidemic in some parts of China at the end of July is expected to hurt August's PMI readings. China's official second-quarter economic figures were in line with expectations, but the Caixin China PMIs in July suggest that the economic recovery is not on sure footing. The economy still faces enormous downward pressure, and we need to ensure business owners remain confident.


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