China data due tomorrow - GDP, for Q1 and activity data for March - preview

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: News

AUD traders (traders of any China proxy) might want to pay particular attention.

China data today has already shown some improvement, and just today we got house prices up more strongly in March than they were in the preceding 3 months.

Wednesday 17 April brings a slew of data. 
GDP for Q1, preview here earlier:
As well as GDP there is March data for Industrial production:
  • expected 5.9% y/y
Retail sales: 
  • expected 8.4% y/y
 Investment in fixed assets (excl. rural)
  • expected 6.3%
Previews via:
  • we look for Q1 GDP growth to moderate to 6.0% y/y
  • Mar. IP and retail sales to edge higher to 5.6% y/y (Wed.; cons.: 5.6%; last: 5.3%) and 8.3% y/y (Wed.; cons.: 8.3%; last: 8.2%), respectively, 
  • Mar. Fixed asset investment growth to improve to 6.2% y/y (Wed.; cons.: 6.3%; last: 6.1%)
  • IP growth may accelerate to 6.1%YoY in Mar. Coal consumption of power plants grew 4.2%YoY in Mar vs -14.9%Yoy in Feb. The PMI subindex of production also jumped, by 3.2ppt in Mar. Post-CNY recovery of industrial activities came earlier this year than in last year, given the earlier holidays. This tends to inflate the headline reading of IP growth somewhat.
  • Despite the recent flow of more positive monthly releases, according to Bloomberg's survey the median analyst expects China's GDP growth to have slowed just 0.1ppt to 6.3%Y/Y, which would be the softest year-on-year reading since the quarterly series began in the early 1990s, although quarterly growth is pegged at 'just' 1.4%Q/Q. 
  • Reflecting the tone of other indicators, growth rates for IP, retail sales and capex are forecast to have firmed somewhat in March.
AUD traders might want to be on alert. While the AUD has dropped today on the RBA tomorrow brings what has been, lately, potential more bullish news with this data from China. PMIs have been indicating improvement. Citi's Economic  Surprise Index for China is, meanwhile, at an  11month high.

Data from China tomorrow is due at 0200GMT.

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