China data dump - analyst response coming through - "generally stronger numbers"
GDP, industrial production, retail sales data, and more:
- AUD/USD testing Friday's high on China GDP and June activity data
- China Industrial production (June): 6.3% y/y (expected 5.2%)
- China June Retail Sales 9.8% y/y (vs. expected 8.5%)
- China June 2019 Fixed Assets (excluding rural) investment YTD 5.8% y/y (exp 5.6%)
- China GDP data for Q2 6.2% y/y (expected 6.2%)
Some responses coming through.
- generally stronger numbers than we had thought … a broad upside surprise
- "Policy in China is working under constraints at the moment as they are trying to achieve multiple objectives. They want to support growth via infrastructure and consumer spending, but they are also careful not to re-ignite a housing bubble. So to that extent, it means the pressure is off in the near term to do more on policy."
- growth in industrial production is particularly encouraging, given the assumed negative impact from trade
- Investors may be scaling back easing expectation upon today's data
- fiscal measures appear to be working
- we believe the PBoC will still be supportive of liquidity