I posted yesterday on early indications for China's economy:

These two now via:


  • We expect the NBS manufacturing PMI to retreat to 52 in October from 52.4 in September, given the impact of production disruptions due to the Party Congress, fewer working days in October, and moderation in high-frequency data.
  • We forecast the Caixin manufacturing PMI will edge down to 50.8 on an expected moderation in private sector production as evidenced by the slowdown in private investment.

TD Securities:

  • The PMIs were rather solid between Q2 and Q3, while activity indicators were rather weak in Jul/Aug. This disconnect between soft and hard data outcomes means that markets don't respond that much to Chinese PMI outcomes these days.
  • Having said that, sub-50 prints across the board could make risk sentiment rather volatile in the Asian region

(Note, Caixin manufacturing PMI is due on 1 November)