China Q1 GDP data due today, along with activity data for March - previews

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: News

January to March economic growth data is due from China 17 April 2018 at 0200 GMT, along with other data

GDP y/y

  • expected is +6.8%
  • prior was +6.8%

March data from China:

  • Industrial Production y/y expected is 6.3%, prior was 6.2%
  • Fixed Assets (excluding rural) YTD y/y, expected is 7.7%, prior was 7.9%
  • Retail Sales y/y, expected is 9.7%, prior was 9.4%
A couple of bank previews

Barclays:

  • We expect fixed asset investment growth to moderate to 7.7% in March given an expected slowdown in real estate investment.
  • We forecast industrial production growth to retreat to 6.3% y/y in March, as evidenced by weaker electricity output growth.
  • Growth in retail sales is likely to improve to 9.8% in March on rising auto sales.
  • Although activity data are likely to moderate in March on a high base, we think the strong NBS manufacturing PMI print, coupled with robust January-February activity data, suggest that the economy remains on a solid footing on robust domestic and external demand in Q1. We see upside risks to our Q1 GDP growth forecasts of 6.7% y/y (6.9% q/q saar).

CBA:

  • Q1 GDP growth is likely to be steady in light of the solid Jan-Feb data.
  • Retail sales are expected to grow steadily as well.
  • Industrial production growth probably have eased in March after the heating season.
  • Fixed asset investment growth is expected to slow due to deleveraging.