China Q1 GDP data due today, along with activity data for March - previews
January to March economic growth data is due from China 17 April 2018 at 0200 GMT, along with other data
- expected is +6.8%
- prior was +6.8%
March data from China:
- Industrial Production y/y expected is 6.3%, prior was 6.2%
- Fixed Assets (excluding rural) YTD y/y, expected is 7.7%, prior was 7.9%
- Retail Sales y/y, expected is 9.7%, prior was 9.4%
- We expect fixed asset investment growth to moderate to 7.7% in March given an expected slowdown in real estate investment.
- We forecast industrial production growth to retreat to 6.3% y/y in March, as evidenced by weaker electricity output growth.
- Growth in retail sales is likely to improve to 9.8% in March on rising auto sales.
- Although activity data are likely to moderate in March on a high base, we think the strong NBS manufacturing PMI print, coupled with robust January-February activity data, suggest that the economy remains on a solid footing on robust domestic and external demand in Q1. We see upside risks to our Q1 GDP growth forecasts of 6.7% y/y (6.9% q/q saar).
- Q1 GDP growth is likely to be steady in light of the solid Jan-Feb data.
- Retail sales are expected to grow steadily as well.
- Industrial production growth probably have eased in March after the heating season.
- Fixed asset investment growth is expected to slow due to deleveraging.