Citi combining fundamentals with techs in a not on the EUR/USD

  • Although ECB actions are nonetheless designed with a weaker EUR in mind, US President Trump and his Administration are actively trying to cap $ upside both via firing warnings to the ECB and jawboning the Fed for further cuts.
  • The Fed is adding $ liquidity. This is $ negative and EUR/$ volatility has been falling. We expect narrower US-EA growth differentials in 2020 and 2021. EUR may rebound."
  • On the weekly chart, the trend of EUR/USD is opposite to that of 2011-2014. The 55 week moving average at 1.1191 is closely watched. A weekly close above, if seen, would suggest extended gains with the next area of resistance at 1.1360-1.1410, with support at 1.1066.


  • EUR/USD 1.11 over the next 3 months
  • 1.16 over the next 6 - 12