Citi analysts say that the Fed could use July to shock markets with a rate rise

September is the date that most of the market has circled on calendars regarding when the US will raise interest rates Miles Udland at Business Insider highlights a note from Citi that says July could be the month of choice instead

Citi say that the Jolts report could be the trigger and that the 6 week period between the June and July meetings could be all the time the FOMC needs to make their final decision. They point to the same timescale between May and June 1999 as their favoured historical comparison, saying that the Fed indicated at that May meeting that they would raise in June.

On the JOLTS report they highlight a chart that measures the JOLTS numbers to the Fed funds rate

Jolts vs Fed Funds rate

The JOLTS report is one of the main jobs indicators that the Fed looks at so there's a strong case for the chart above. However, as we often say at ForexLive regarding trading, every situation is different and you have to judge the moves at the time. That goes for for the fundamentals too. We know the jobs market is strong and has been for a couple of years now but the worries will be about the rest of the economy and the consumer

What we do know is that next week's meeting is going to be important as it could well be when the Fed signal their intentions. We have some deciding consumer data with retail sales tomorrow and consumer confidence Friday, alongside some PPI price data. That's going to give the Fed one last look at the consumer sector. If it shows a big pick up then that might be just what Yellen needs to tick that last box before laying down her hiking plans

Come rate hiking with Aunty Janet. July might be good