Commodity currencies hanging by a thread
The AUD/USD and USD/CAD charts are barely holding on. It’s probably a bit early to jump in here but a break below 0.9700 in AUD/USD or above 1.0400 in USD/CAD could trigger another 100-150 pip push.
They probably won’t break until the US gets going. It’s tough to jump in ahead of month/quarter end but here’s something to consider: hedge funds report positions at quarter end and they will be loath to show an overexposure to stocks. If so, they will shift into bonds in what looks like a flight to quality and would hurt AUD and CAD. That switch would then reverse on Monday.