JPM forecast a steep drop in US economic activity:

  • revise their GDP forecast to -2.0% annualized growth in 1Q
  • followed by -3.0% growth in 2Q
  • forecast assumes a fiscal response of about $500 billion

Further out:

  • If the spread of virus moderates .... stage could be set for a return to growth in 3Q, when we forecast 2.5%

The previous time there was a US recession in an election year (1980) the incumbent president at the time (Jimmy Carter) lost. The recession was not the only issue of course.

We'll also need to add in this stock market crash to this year's election punditry.