Infecting around half a million people by the time it peaks says Adam Kucharski, an associate professor of infectious disease epidemiology at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.
via Bloomberg
- "Assuming current trends continue, we're still projecting a mid-to-late-February peak"
- "There's a lot of uncertainty, so I'm cautious about picking out a single value for the peak, but it's possible based on current data we might see a peak prevalence over 5%." (ie one in twenty of Wuhan's population infected)
- this may change if transmission patterns slow in coming days
There are alternative views at that liok, worth checking out if you are interested
