Fitch ratings

  • ongoing coronavirus outbreak will dampen economic growth in China this year
  • if Chinese govt were to launch a large-scale stimulus to offset effects of coronavirus, it could have adverse effect on other policy goals
  • still too early to make definitive adjustments to China's GDP forecasts at this stage & instead have examined some illustrative scenarios
  • huge uncertainties remain over impact of coronavirus on China's economy
  • says China govt only likely launch large-scale stimulus if economic impact of virus proves substantially larger than SARS outbreak in 2003
  • if epidemic is not contained until well into Q2 growth could fall more steeply, China GDP growth in Q1 could be closer to 3%

more to come