Italy has been the European leader in COVID-19 infections and deaths

Which is not a title that is coveted. Germany, Spain and France are also seeing rapid increases in infections but are quite a ways behind Italy.

The question is what if confirmed cases in these countries begin to rise as they have in Italy? If we begin to see restricted movement imposed on regions in these countries it may be a preview of nationwide lockdowns.

The shutting down of China had severe economic impact there, this may be in store for Europe.

Just thinking out loud, I hope to be very, very wrong on this.

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Why is the euro up? We have answered this many times, long story short is EUR has been a funding currency for risk. As risk has unwound there is diminished need for the funding hence EUR shorts have covered in (bought EUR). The flows are beyond most folks' comprehension - in the bns if not tlns.

Italy has been the European leader in COVID-19 infections and deaths