Cases rising but vaccine on the way
Nearly every market is now looking past the virus but as asset prices rise and cases climb, that calculus could change. A potential tipping point is a fresh round of lockdowns and we see the odds rising of more curbs in the weeks ahead.
The US CDC reported 207K virus cases yesterday and another 2310 deaths. The day before it was record 228,419 cases. The US is adding around 2000 patients to hospitals each day.
One hotspot is California, which reported a record 30,075 new cases today with 8.1% testing positive. The state could go back into a full lockdown and it accounts for nearly 15% of US GDP.
On Sunday, former US FDA head Scott Gottlieb said he expects cases to rise over the next four to six weeks before peaking around year end. He said daily deaths will peak a couple weeks later and could rise to 3000 or even 4000.
What had started to look like a plateau two weeks ago, now looks like it's accelerating again after all the Thanksgiving travel.
Elsewhere, South Korean officials issued stricter social-distancing rules for the third time in a month with daily cases above 600.
The good news is that the US could approve Pfizer's vaccine for emergency use as soon as Thursday. That's sure to be a risk-positive headline, even if it should already be priced in.
