Corrects previous figure in lead to 5.1% from incorrect 5.0%
TOKYO (MNI) – Japan’s Q3 GDP growth will be revised down to an
annualized 5.1% (correcting from 5.0%) rise from an initial 6.0% rise,
reflecting an expected downward revision to capital investment,
according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Market News
International.
The Cabinet Office will release revised (second preliminary) gross
domestic product data for July-September at 0850 JST on Friday, Dec. 9
(2350 GMT on Thursday).
Preliminary GDP data released last month showed that Japan’s
economy rose a real 1.5% q/q in Q3 (an annualized +6.0%), posting the
first gain in four quarters.
Economists are basing their forecasts on the results of a quarterly
business survey by the Ministry of Finance released on Friday.
Capex will be revised down to -0.5% q/q from a preliminary +1.1%,
while the positive contribution of private-sector inventories to GDP
will be unchanged at +0.2 percentage point.
The MOF survey showed non-financial firm capex including software
fell 9.8% in the three months to Sep. 30 from a year earlier, showing
the second consecutive q/q fall, after -7.8% in Q2 and +3.0% in Q1.
Forecasting GDP is not an easy job because the Cabinet Office
revises seasonal adjustments to past figures each time it releases new
GDP data, whether the preliminary or the revised series.
Also, it will factor in changes in both prices and industrial
structure during a five-year-period between 2000 and 2005 in the revised
Q3 GDP.
MNI plans to release in coming days the results of a full survey of
economists forecasting revised Q3 GDP.
tokyo@marketnews.com
** Market News International Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4833 **
[TOPICS: M$J$$$,M$A$$$,MAJDS$]
