Rabobank see EURCHF falling to 1.0500 on a Brexit and that's got me thinking.
If the UK votes to leave, EURCHF could fall to 1.05, says Rabobank in a note. A vote to stay will see it push back up towards 1.10.
They also see the swissy performing well if the stay vote is a close one. A move to 1.05 may also bring further policy action from the SNB, with intervention coming before another rate cut.
I should think that most currencies with an EUR tag are going to be at risk if we vote to leave, and CHF is likely to be up there as a big one. I certainly think a big move south is worth a long, just to piggy back on possible intervention.
What we need to be on watch for is EURCHF taking on a strong bid very close to the vote as the SNB may well shore up their defences to try and limit any fallout. It's something we've seen around other events like the ECB March meeting. A small long a couple of days after their June 16th mon pol meeting might take advantage of that into the UK vote.
Something to think about for you CHF traders.
