Credit Suisse in summary comments on AUD/USD and the Australian dollar against the euro:

  • bearish the USD remains a core theme for 2021
  • Our preferred expression to play for USD weakness is still the Commodity currencies, primarily AUD, with the EUR one of our least favorites
  • AUDUSD ... the core uptrend remains intact, reinforced by the large existing "head and shoulders" base
  • resistance seen next at .8000 and then the 2018 high at .8136
  • We also believe further strengthen AUD will be reinforced by higher Industrial Metals and our reflationary views
  • In support of our preference for AUD over EUR, EURAUD completed an important medium-term top in early 2021. Although the market has also shifted into a near-term range around1.5707/5684, we look for further weakness to unfold in due course, with next support seen at1.5500 and eventually at the December and June 2018 lows, as well as the potential uptrend from 2012 at1.5378/5275, where we expect to see a pause.