Yes, its BOJ day, but before we get the announcement we get a stack of Japanese data released

CPI is a big focus, and note it comes out at 2330GMT, not the 2350GMT we are accustomed to for Japanese data

2330GMT

  • National CPI y/y for June, expected is -0.4%, prior was -1.1%
  • National CPI y/y excluding Fresh Food for June, expected is -0.4%, prior was -0.4%
  • National CPI excluding Food, Energy y/y for June, expected is 0.5%, prior was 0.6%
  • Tokyo CPI y/y for July, expected is -0.5%, prior was -0.5% (Tokyo CPI data is available a month earlier than the National CPI)
  • Tokyo CPI excluding Fresh Food y/y for July, expected is -0.4%, prior was -0.5%
  • Tokyo CPI excluding Food, Energy y/y for July, expected is 0.3%, prior was 0.4%

Remember, the BOJ inflation target is 2%, which is obviously still a long way off. For the "CPI excluding Food, Energy", which is what the BOJ watch most closely its expected at 0.5% (nationally). A lot of work still to do.

Also due at 2330GMT:

  • Overall Household Spending y/y for June, expected is -0.4%, prior was -1.1%
  • Jobless Rate for June, expected is 3.2%, prior was 3.2%
  • Job-To-Applicant Ratio for June, expected is 1.37, prior was 1.36

And, it doesn't stop there ...

Due at 2350GMT

  • Industrial Production m/m for June (preliminary reading), expected is 0.5%, prior was -2.6%
  • Industrial Production y/y for June (preliminary), expected is -2.9%, prior was -0.4%
  • Retail Trade for June m/m, expected is 0.3%, prior -0.1%
  • Retail Trade for June y/y, expected is -1.2%, prior -2.1%

So, that's a lucky 13 data points before the BOJ. If they are on the weak side it'll be viewed as being more likely we'll see BOJ action, and a yen negative. And vice versa.

So, its unlikely to be a cruise into the Bank of Japan announcement.

Here is more from overnight on the bank today:

  • There will only be three key moves over the BOJ
  • USDJPY levels to watch over the BOJ
  • USDJPY keeps on trucking as the BOJ expectation rises
  • Here's the details of Japan's MOF/BOJ statement draft
  • Japan's MOF has prepared a draft statement in the event of BOJ action - Reuters
  • What to expect from the Notorious BOJ? - Credit Suisse