DB had forecast a rate hike from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in H2 of 2019

  • Have now revised to expecting a hike in Q2 of 2020 instead

Citing

  • the employment report earlier today, it'll have an impact on the RBNZ
  • softer global backdrop

Gives RBNZ little scope to hike this year

Further:

  • expect RBNZ likely to push its implied OCR hike projection into 2021
  • does not see RBNZ to cut rates due to core inflation move higher

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And, a heads up for NZD traders, the RBNZ meet next week:

  • February 13 (NZ time)
  • OCR announcement
  • Monetary Policy Statement
  • and media conference