Janus Capital's Bill Gross thinks so
While economists are chewing over the details, Bill Gross has been first out the starting blocks to have his say on the numbers
He says that the report makes September "almost for sure" for the Fed to hike. He adds;
- Raising rates may increase investment
- A 50bp rise would scare markets
- Dollar strength should be a consideration for the Fed
- He is now "managing risk off"
So he sees it as almost a done deal and is trading the after effects
Does this report bring the Fed closer to a hike?
I don't think it's done any harm but I don't see anything here that screams that Sep hike chances have increased. The revision to June helps, as does the increase in working hours and the underemployment rate falling. Wages rose as expected but y/y only showed a small gain. There's reasons to be bullish but I don't see this report making the Fed's mind up for definite
If I had to pick trigger for the Fed to act on jobs it would probably be the unemployment rate dropping to 5.0% or better, and/or a big uptick in wages. Get them up to 2.5%+ y/y and that might be enough for the Fed to pull the trigger
What these numbers do is make the August NFP even bigger now
