Did the stock market sell off preview the US CPI due Thursday?

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: News

US inflation data is due 11 October 2018 at 1230GMT.  

The headline is me thinking aloud.
Anyway, what to expect, this via Nomura:

  • We forecast 0.2% (0.244%) m-o-m increase in core CPI inflation for September following a 0.082% advance in August. On a 12-month change basis, our forecast would be equivalent to 2.304% advance in September, up slightly from a 2.190% pace in August. 
  • The relative softness in core CPI inflation in August was mostly concentrated certain volatile core goods prices. Thus, we think the core CPI inflation will likely return to its underlying pace that seems consistent with core inflation running slightly above 2% y-o-y. We expect a rebound in core goods prices following a 0.3% mo-m decline in August. 
  • Among noncore components, we expect a modest 0.1% m-o-m increase in food prices. Food-at-home prices likely slowed based on incoming data on agricultural products and lowered the aggregate CPI food prices. Energy prices including retail gasoline and natural gas prices were mixed in September, and we expect a slight decline in CPI energy prices. Altogether, we expect 0.2% (0.192%) m-o-m increase in the headline CPI inflation.

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