- EUR/USD: big option play has tied the market in for the last 2 weeks and there are 2 more to go we believe. 1.3750/1.4250 range on the wide but it’s getting more like 1.39/1.41. Macro players take a holiday.
- Cable is consolidating in a 1.62/1.66 range and anyone who has played near the edges of this for the last 2 weeks will have done really well. A clean break-out in either direction will signal the next big move.
- USD/JPY has been in a broad 92/102 for the last 6 months. Same as above- play the edges until the next breakout gives a macro direction.
- AUD/USD: the RBA bought heavily at .60 and the market thought it was wrong. The RBA has been selling for the last month above .80 and the market thinks it’s wrong! My experience in the FX markets have taught me not to take on central banks. They are usually right.
- The SNB does not want the CHF to appreciate against the EUR much beyond 1.50.
In spite of many ‘important’ developments in the last 24 hours, we are opening in Asia at almost exactly the same levels where we opened yesterday. Get ready to job the market; if it’s good enough for a big player like China, it’s good enough for me.
Good luck today.