If you’ve had a sleepless weekend fretting over the question of Japan’s recession we’ll get the answer today! (ps. Relax, get out more).

3 weeks ago we got the preliminary Q3 GDP from Japan, and what a sad and sorry take those figures painted:

GDP (seasonally adjusted) for Q3, preliminary: -0.4% q/q
expected 0.5%, prior -1.9% revised from -1.8%
GDP Annualized (seasonally adjusted) for Q3 preliminary: -1.6% y/y
expected 2.2%, prior -7.3%, revised from -7.1%

(more here)

Today, though, we get the final figures for Q3 … will they confirm the preliminary data and Japan’s recession?

Due at 2350GMT.

Here’s what is expected:

GDP (seasonally adjusted), q/q:

  • expected -0.1%, preliminary -0.4%

GDP Annualized (seasonally adjusted), y/y:

  • expected -0.5%, prior -1.6%

GDP Nominal (seasonally adjusted),

  • expected -0.5%, preliminary -0.8%

GDP Deflator y/y:

  • expected 2.1%, preliminary 2.1%

Also due at 2350GMT:

BoP Current Account Balance for October,

  • expected ¥ 370.1B, prior ¥ 963.0B

BoP Current Account Adjusted for October:

  • expected ¥ 455.0B, prior ¥ 414.4B

Trade Balance BoP Basis for October:

  • expected ¥ -569.6B, prior ¥ -714.5B

Bank Lending excluding trusts for November, y/y:

  • expected 2.4%, prior 2.5%

Bank Lending including trusts for November, y/y:

  • prior was 2.4%